ESA Copernicus Multi-Hazard
Risk Mapping for Marikina City
🛰️ Advanced Satellite-Based Disaster Preparedness
Sentinel-1 SAR/InSAR Ground Deformation Monitoring | 47 Safe Zones Validated | 91% Success Rate
Project Overview
Dual-source validation combining official government data with cutting-edge ESA Copernicus satellite technology for comprehensive earthquake preparedness
🎯 Mission
To provide scientifically validated safe zones for Marikina City residents using dual-source methodology: official DRRMO designations verified with independent ESA Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite monitoring.
🔬 Methodology
7-criteria assessment framework combining fault proximity, InSAR ground deformation, flood risk, accessibility, capacity, infrastructure quality, and historical safety records.
📡 Technology
Sentinel-1 SAR/InSAR (C-band radar), Sentinel-2 optical imagery, PHIVOLCS seismic data, NAMRIA GPS validation, and iONTEk GridShield AI risk modeling.
✅ Results
43 of 47 zones (91%) fully validated. 3 zones require enhanced monitoring. 1 zone flagged for removal due to critical ground subsidence (-16.8 mm/year).
Interactive Risk Map
Comprehensive multi-hazard assessment with InSAR ground deformation, seismic risk zones, and validated safe zones
Sentinel-1 InSAR | West Valley Fault | 47 Safe Zones
Interactive Map: Click here to open full interactive mapping application with real-time layer controls, InSAR heat maps, and detailed zone information.
Validated Safe Zones
47 safe zones assessed and classified based on scientific validation criteria
Optimal
Suitable
Conditional
Review
Top Performing Safe Zones
Score: 0.91 (91%)
Displacement: -2.3 mm/yr
Capacity: ~20,000 persons
Status: ✅ Excellent – Highest rating
Score: 0.88 (88%)
Displacement: -4.1 mm/yr
Capacity: ~15,000 persons
Status: ✅ Optimal – Fully approved
Score: 0.87 (87%)
Displacement: +1.8 mm/yr
Capacity: ~12,000 persons
Status: ✅ Optimal – Priority designation
Score: 0.86 (86%)
Displacement: +4.2 mm/yr
Capacity: ~10,000 persons
Status: ⚠️ GPS monitoring (uplift near fault)
Score: 0.85 (85%)
Displacement: -4.2 mm/yr
Capacity: ~8,000 persons
Status: ✅ Optimal – Approved
Score: 0.86 (86%)
Displacement: -3.5 mm/yr
Capacity: ~7,000 persons
Status: ✅ Optimal – Stable ground
• Marikina Hotel (Brgy. Concepcion Dos) – Commercial building, needs certification
• Major Dizon Road (Brgy. I.V.C.) – Displacement: -14.2 mm/yr
Ground subsidence: -16.8 mm/year (exceeds -8mm/yr threshold by 210%)
Total displacement: -84mm over 5 years
Recommendation: REMOVE from safe zone list
Alternative: Redirect to St. Mary Open Space (1.2 km away, Class A validated)
Sentinel-1 InSAR Ground Deformation Analysis
Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PSInSAR) processing of 50+ scenes from January 2020 to October 2025
Line-of-sight (LOS) displacement velocity measured by Sentinel-1 C-band radar
Subsidence
(sinking) -10 mm/yr
Moderate
subsidence 0 mm/yr
Stable
(no movement) +10 mm/yr
Moderate
uplift +20 mm/yr
Uplift
(rising)
🔬 Processing Parameters
| Software: | ESA SNAP 9.0 + StaMPS |
| Method: | Multi-Temporal InSAR (MTI) |
| Scenes: | 50+ acquisitions (2020-2025) |
| Temporal Baseline: | 6-12 days |
| Resolution: | 5m × 20m |
| DEM: | SRTM 30m |
| Phase Unwrapping: | SNAPHU algorithm |
| Atmospheric: | GACOS correction |
📊 Quality Metrics
| Mean Coherence: | 0.72 ± 0.08 (good) |
| PS Density: | 245 points/km² |
| Velocity Uncertainty: | ±2.1 mm/year |
| Spatial Resolution: | 20 meters |
| Temporal Sampling: | 50 epochs |
| GPS Validation: | RMSE: 7.2mm |
| GPS Correlation: | R² = 0.94 |
| Data Volume: | 215.3 GB processed |
Critical Zone Displacement Profiles
🔴 Kabayani Road (Class D)
| Displacement Rate: | -16.8 ± 1.2 mm/yr |
| Total (5 years): | -84 mm (8.4 cm sinking) |
| Coherence: | 0.68 (moderate) |
| Trend: | Accelerating |
| 2024-2025 Rate: | -18.2 mm/yr |
| Mechanism: | Groundwater + clay compression |
❌ UNACCEPTABLE for safe zone designation
⚠️ Trevi Open Space (Class A)
| Displacement Rate: | +4.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr |
| Total (5 years): | +21 mm (2.1 cm uplift) |
| Coherence: | 0.81 (good) |
| Trend: | Steady linear uplift |
| Fault Distance: | 2.8 km (closest) |
| Mechanism: | Possible pre-seismic strain |
✅ ACCEPTABLE but requires GPS station for validation
✅ Sto. Niño Baseball Field (Class A)
| Displacement Rate: | -2.3 ± 0.5 mm/yr |
| Total (5 years): | -11.5 mm (1.2 cm) |
| Coherence: | 0.89 (excellent) |
| Trend: | Stable, minimal variation |
| Capacity: | 20,000 persons |
| Mechanism: | Natural consolidation |
✅ EXCELLENT – Highest safety rating
📊 Statistical Summary (All 47 Zones)
| Mean Displacement: | -7.4 mm/yr (subsidence) |
| Standard Deviation: | ±4.2 mm/yr |
| Range: | -16.8 to +4.2 mm/yr |
| Stable (<5mm/yr): | 18 zones (38%) |
| Acceptable (5-10): | 21 zones (45%) |
| Monitoring (10-15): | 7 zones (15%) |
| Critical (>15): | 1 zone (2%) |
Average subsidence primarily due to urban groundwater extraction
Key Findings & Recommendations
Comprehensive analysis results and priority action items for Marikina City DRRMO
Immediate Actions (0-30 Days)
🔴 Priority 1: Remove Kabayani Road
Issue: Critical subsidence -16.8 mm/yr
Action: Remove from safe zone designation
Alternative: St. Mary Open Space (1.2 km)
Timeline: Immediate
⚠️ Priority 2: GPS Station at Trevi
Issue: Anomalous +4.2 mm/yr uplift
Action: Install dedicated GPS/GNSS station
Reason: Closest to fault (2.8 km)
Timeline: Within 30 days
📋 Priority 3: Manila Bay Thread Corp
Issue: Coordinate emergency access
Action: Formal agreement for 1,500 capacity
Location: 107 Lopez Jaena St, Marikina
Timeline: Within 30 days
Validation Criteria Breakdown
| Criterion | Weight | Data Source | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fault Proximity | 25% | PHIVOLCS Fault Database | >3km preferred, >5km optimal |
| Ground Deformation | 20% | Sentinel-1 InSAR | <10mm/year acceptable |
| Flood Risk | 15% | Historical + Sentinel-2 | Low to moderate |
| Accessibility | 15% | Road network analysis | Multiple access points |
| Capacity | 10% | Area calculation | >500 persons/hectare |
| Infrastructure | 10% | Building assessment | Seismic code compliance |
| Historical Safety | 5% | Past disaster records | No major incidents |
| Zone Class | InSAR Frequency | GPS Validation | Physical Inspection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class A | Annual | Biannual (2 zones) | Biannual |
| Class B | Biannual | Annual | Quarterly |
| Class C | Quarterly | Quarterly | Monthly |
| Class D | Monthly | Monthly | Immediate action |
Active Data Sources & Technologies
Multi-source data integration for comprehensive risk assessment
ESA Sentinel-1A/B
Type: C-band SAR (5.405 GHz)
Mode: Interferometric Wide Swath
Resolution: 5m × 20m
Revisit: 6 days
Last Pass: Oct 16, 2025
✓ OPERATIONALESA Sentinel-2A/B
Type: Optical Multispectral
Bands: 13 (443-2190nm)
Resolution: 10m (visible/NIR)
Revisit: 5 days
Cloud Cover: 15% (Oct 14)
✓ OPERATIONALInSAR Processing Pipeline
Software: ESA SNAP 9.0
Method: PSInSAR / MTI
Stack: 50 scenes (2020-2025)
Algorithm: StaMPS + SNAPHU
Status: 78% complete
⏳ PROCESSINGPhilippine Space Agency
Satellite: Diwata-2
Resolution: 3m multispectral
Bands: RGB + NIR
Coverage: Marikina Basin
Integration: Real-time API
✓ CONNECTEDPHIVOLCS
Type: Seismic Network
Stations: 12 near WV Fault
Sampling: 100 Hz continuous
Coverage: Metro Manila
Data: WebSocket real-time
✓ REAL-TIMENAMRIA GPS Network
Stations: MKNA, ANTP, PASI, TGAY
Equipment: Trimble NetR9
Sampling: 1 Hz (86,400/day)
Processing: Bernese GNSS 5.4
Correlation: R² = 0.94
✓ VALIDATEDMarikina DRRMO
Type: Official Government Data
Safe Zones: 47 designated
Coverage: 13 barangays
Capacity: 450,000 persons
Status: Verified & updated
✓ CURRENTiONTEk GridShield AI
Model: Random Forest + LSTM
Training: 5 years InSAR + GPS
Prediction: 6-month forecast
Accuracy: RMSE 1.8 mm/yr
Updates: Daily forecasts
✓ OPERATIONAL• Authentication: OAuth 2.0
• Catalog: OData v1 API
• Download: S3 compatible
• Processing: On-demand CARD-BS
• Data Volume: 215.3 GB (last 30 days)
Technical Specifications
Complete satellite parameters and processing workflow
🛰️ Sentinel-1 SAR/InSAR
| Frequency | 5.405 GHz (5.6 cm wavelength) |
| Polarization | VV + VH (dual-pol) |
| Mode | Interferometric Wide (IW) |
| Resolution | 5m (azimuth) × 20m (range) |
| Swath Width | 250 km |
| Orbit | Ascending 280° |
| Incidence Angle | 29.1° – 46.0° |
| Track / Frame | 71 / 423 |
🌍 Sentinel-2 Optical
| Instrument | Multispectral Imager (MSI) |
| Spectral Bands | 13 (443nm – 2190nm) |
| Resolution | 10m (RGB/NIR), 20m (Red Edge) |
| Swath Width | 290 km |
| Revisit Time | 5 days (constellation) |
| Products | L1C (TOA) + L2A (BOA) |
| Tile | T51PTS (Marikina) |
| Applications | NDVI, NDWI, land cover |
Acquisition
SNAP
Generation
Unwrapping
Correction
Map
Contact & Collaboration
Get in touch with the iONTEk Power GridShield Risk Mapping team
📧 Contact Information
iONTEk Power GridShield
Risk Mapping Division
📧 Email: risk-mapping@iontek.com
🌐 Web: www.iontek-gridshield.com
📱 24/7 Hotline: +63 (02) 8XXX-XXXX
📍 Location: Pasay, Metro Manila, Philippines
🤝 Our Partners
📄 Documentation & Resources
🎯 Services Offered
- ✓ Earthquake risk mapping
- ✓ InSAR ground deformation monitoring
- ✓ Safe zone validation & certification
- ✓ Multi-hazard assessment
- ✓ ESG compliance reporting
- ✓ Legal expert witness services
- ✓ Public advocacy & training